Ruin-Nation
2 years ago
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Con la mirada puesta en EEUU
Motivos para invertir en USA y una selección de fondos sobre los que tenemos una buena opinión.
PERSPECTIVAS: Invertir en agricultura
Richard Davis, co-gestor del BGF World Agriculture, nos expone la lógica de la inversión en agricultura.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Monday, October 12, 2009
Commodities Cycle Won't Be Over for Years and Food Crisis Looms, Rogers Says
by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Newsmakers, Commodities
Jim Rogers, famed investor and best-selling author, announced the start of a global commodities rally in 1999. It turned out to be a heck of call: Since then, commodities have dramatically outperformed stocks.
Just this year, gold has hit record highs above $1000 per ounce, copper has nearly doubled and oil has rallied sharply off its March lows. So does Robers still believe in the commodity boom?
You bet. "The story is not over, not for a while," he tells Tech Ticker in this video clip. "I don't see any reason it's going to be over for a few years because no one is bringing new supply on stream."
Jim Rogers, famed investor and best-selling author, announced the start of a global commodities rally in 1999. It turned out to be a heck of call: Since then, commodities have dramatically outperformed stocks.
Just this year, gold has hit record highs above $1000 per ounce, copper has nearly doubled and oil has rallied sharply off its March lows. So does Robers still believe in the commodity boom?
You bet. "The story is not over, not for a while," he tells Tech Ticker in this video clip. "I don't see any reason it's going to be over for a few years because no one is bringing new supply on stream."
Commodities Cycle Won't Be Over for Years and Food Crisis Looms, Rogers Says
by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Newsmakers, Commodities
Jim Rogers, famed investor and best-selling author, announced the start of a global commodities rally in 1999. It turned out to be a heck of call: Since then, commodities have dramatically outperformed stocks.
Just this year, gold has hit record highs above $1000 per ounce, copper has nearly doubled and oil has rallied sharply off its March lows. So does Robers still believe in the commodity boom?
You bet. "The story is not over, not for a while," he tells Tech Ticker in this video clip. "I don't see any reason it's going to be over for a few years because no one is bringing new supply on stream."
Jim Rogers, famed investor and best-selling author, announced the start of a global commodities rally in 1999. It turned out to be a heck of call: Since then, commodities have dramatically outperformed stocks.
Just this year, gold has hit record highs above $1000 per ounce, copper has nearly doubled and oil has rallied sharply off its March lows. So does Robers still believe in the commodity boom?
You bet. "The story is not over, not for a while," he tells Tech Ticker in this video clip. "I don't see any reason it's going to be over for a few years because no one is bringing new supply on stream."
It's a V! Recovery "A Lot Stronger" Than Consensus, ECRI's Achuthan Says
by Aaron Task
Good news for those worried about the economy: "We are in the early stages of the recovery and it looks to be a lot stronger" than the consensus for modest 2%-3% GDP growth, says
Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).
Furthermore, the recovery will be "V-shaped" and is now "virtually unstoppable" - at least through the first half of 2010 -- Achuthan says, citing a "positive contagion" in the economy right now, based on leading economic indicators. Most notably, the ECRI's index of Weekly Economic Indicators just hit a new record high.
Good news for those worried about the economy: "We are in the early stages of the recovery and it looks to be a lot stronger" than the consensus for modest 2%-3% GDP growth, says
Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).
Furthermore, the recovery will be "V-shaped" and is now "virtually unstoppable" - at least through the first half of 2010 -- Achuthan says, citing a "positive contagion" in the economy right now, based on leading economic indicators. Most notably, the ECRI's index of Weekly Economic Indicators just hit a new record high.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Warren Buffett's $3 Billion Goldman Anniversary
By: Alex Crippen
Executive Producer
CNBC
Warren Buffett and Goldman Sachs: Golden Anniversary
It's 12 months later and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is $3 billion richer.
One year ago today, on September 23, 2008, with the financial world still reeling from the collapse of Lehman Brothers just days before, Buffett stunned Wall Street with a massive vote of confidence for Goldman Sachs.
In a late-day news release, Goldman announced a private deal to sell Berkshire $5 billion of perpetual preferred stock. In effect, Berkshire was giving Goldman a massive loan. And you don't loan that kind of money to a firm you think could follow Lehman down the drain.
Executive Producer
CNBC
Warren Buffett and Goldman Sachs: Golden Anniversary
It's 12 months later and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is $3 billion richer.
One year ago today, on September 23, 2008, with the financial world still reeling from the collapse of Lehman Brothers just days before, Buffett stunned Wall Street with a massive vote of confidence for Goldman Sachs.
In a late-day news release, Goldman announced a private deal to sell Berkshire $5 billion of perpetual preferred stock. In effect, Berkshire was giving Goldman a massive loan. And you don't loan that kind of money to a firm you think could follow Lehman down the drain.
Rogers: We Need More Lehmans
By: Dan Weil
Money News
Investor extraordinaire Jim Rogers says the financial system needs more failures like Lehman Brothers to restore a functioning free market.
The chairman of Rogers Holding wrote in the Financial Times, “We need some more Lehmans so we can get out of this.”
During the last 20 years, “Greenspan and Bernanke introduced crony capitalism to the West, which is leading to a lost decade(s),” Rogers writes.
“Market fundamentals are that failures should collapse and be replaced by creative new forces rather than being propped up as zombies. Financial institutions have been failing for centuries and the world has survived.”
Money News
Investor extraordinaire Jim Rogers says the financial system needs more failures like Lehman Brothers to restore a functioning free market.
The chairman of Rogers Holding wrote in the Financial Times, “We need some more Lehmans so we can get out of this.”
During the last 20 years, “Greenspan and Bernanke introduced crony capitalism to the West, which is leading to a lost decade(s),” Rogers writes.
“Market fundamentals are that failures should collapse and be replaced by creative new forces rather than being propped up as zombies. Financial institutions have been failing for centuries and the world has survived.”
Bill Gross: Sell Equities, Buy Treasuries
Edward Harrison
Seeking Alpha
Bill Gross is a bond man. In fact, he is often called the “Bond King” because Pimco, the organization where he is founder and Co-Chief Investment Officer, is the largest bond fund in the world. In Bondland, what Gross says has a lot of weight.
And Gross has been talking about a “new normal” of deleveraging, deglobalization and reregulation. In his view, this means weak consumer demand counterbalanced only by heavier government intervention, leading to slow growth for the foreseeable future (See my post ‘Gross: The new normal for “the next 10 years and maybe even the next 20 years”’). In essence, he sees a scenario that is bullish for bonds (especially longer duration types like the 10-year and the 30-year) but not particularly bullish for shares.
Seeking Alpha
Bill Gross is a bond man. In fact, he is often called the “Bond King” because Pimco, the organization where he is founder and Co-Chief Investment Officer, is the largest bond fund in the world. In Bondland, what Gross says has a lot of weight.
And Gross has been talking about a “new normal” of deleveraging, deglobalization and reregulation. In his view, this means weak consumer demand counterbalanced only by heavier government intervention, leading to slow growth for the foreseeable future (See my post ‘Gross: The new normal for “the next 10 years and maybe even the next 20 years”’). In essence, he sees a scenario that is bullish for bonds (especially longer duration types like the 10-year and the 30-year) but not particularly bullish for shares.
Future of Polish-US relations
The shape of Polish-US relations and what the future holds in store for Polish culture.
Polish-US relations is the topic taken up by several papers. Analysts wonder if Washington’s decision to abandon plans for a missile shield installation in Poland will prove to be a setback in these relations. US analyst George Friedman claims in the tabloid FAKT that nothing has changed so far. ‘From the tactical point of view, the anti-missile shield was not that important for Poland’, he writes. It was more of a symbolic significance. What is really important is the shape of US-Russian relations. Moscow will most probably ask for more gestures from Washington and will want to have a final say on affairs with Ukraine and Georgia.
Polish-US relations is the topic taken up by several papers. Analysts wonder if Washington’s decision to abandon plans for a missile shield installation in Poland will prove to be a setback in these relations. US analyst George Friedman claims in the tabloid FAKT that nothing has changed so far. ‘From the tactical point of view, the anti-missile shield was not that important for Poland’, he writes. It was more of a symbolic significance. What is really important is the shape of US-Russian relations. Moscow will most probably ask for more gestures from Washington and will want to have a final say on affairs with Ukraine and Georgia.
The BMD Decision and the Global System
By Stratfor
he United States announced late Sept. 17 that it would abandon a plan for placing ballistic missile defense (BMD) installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. Instead of the planned system, which was intended to defend primarily against a potential crude intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) threat from Iran against the United States, the administration chose a restructured system that will begin by providing some protection to Europe using U.S. Navy ships based on either the North or Mediterranean seas. The Obama administration has argued that this system will be online sooner than the previously planned system and that follow-on systems will protect the United States. It was also revealed that the latest National Intelligence Estimate finds that Iran is further away from having a true intercontinental missile capability than previously thought, meaning protecting Europe is a more pressing concern than protecting the United States.
he United States announced late Sept. 17 that it would abandon a plan for placing ballistic missile defense (BMD) installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. Instead of the planned system, which was intended to defend primarily against a potential crude intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) threat from Iran against the United States, the administration chose a restructured system that will begin by providing some protection to Europe using U.S. Navy ships based on either the North or Mediterranean seas. The Obama administration has argued that this system will be online sooner than the previously planned system and that follow-on systems will protect the United States. It was also revealed that the latest National Intelligence Estimate finds that Iran is further away from having a true intercontinental missile capability than previously thought, meaning protecting Europe is a more pressing concern than protecting the United States.
Shiller Says We Need More Research On Economic Bubbles
With the failure of current economic models to give adequate warning of the current financial crisis, Robert Shiller says we need more research of bubbles and what their role should be in economic models. If we had a better understanding of bubbles, could we prevent them from reaching dangerous levels or detect trouble much sooner? The following article summarized by the Economist's View discusses this topic.
Robert Shiller says economists and their models need to take bubbles seriously (compare Dani Rodrik's "Blame Economists, not Economics"):
Robert Shiller says economists and their models need to take bubbles seriously (compare Dani Rodrik's "Blame Economists, not Economics"):
Meredith Whitney: At Least 300 More Banks To Fail
The Daily Bail
I stumbled across this clip from Friday's Good Morning America with Diane Sawyer and Meredith Whitney. It's a good opportunity to talk about Sawyer's intelligence. She has none. (Editor's Note: I got stories but I'm not talking.) Whitney reiterates her thesis that home prices have 25% further to fall and that consumer credit contraction will keep the recovery weak. Sawyer seems almost shocked by the pessimism, as though her assistant never explained to Meredith that you're not supposed to tell the truth on morning TV. She recovers in time to ask MW for one piece of 'advise' for everyone out there.
I stumbled across this clip from Friday's Good Morning America with Diane Sawyer and Meredith Whitney. It's a good opportunity to talk about Sawyer's intelligence. She has none. (Editor's Note: I got stories but I'm not talking.) Whitney reiterates her thesis that home prices have 25% further to fall and that consumer credit contraction will keep the recovery weak. Sawyer seems almost shocked by the pessimism, as though her assistant never explained to Meredith that you're not supposed to tell the truth on morning TV. She recovers in time to ask MW for one piece of 'advise' for everyone out there.
Finding the Policy Exit
By Nouriel Roubini
There is a general consensus that the massive monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and support of the financial system undertaken by governments and central banks around the world prevented the deep recession of 2008-2009 from devolving into Great Depression II. Policymakers were able to avoid a depression because they had learned from the policy mistakes made during the Great Depression of the 1930’s and Japan’s near depression of the 1990’s.
There is a general consensus that the massive monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and support of the financial system undertaken by governments and central banks around the world prevented the deep recession of 2008-2009 from devolving into Great Depression II. Policymakers were able to avoid a depression because they had learned from the policy mistakes made during the Great Depression of the 1930’s and Japan’s near depression of the 1990’s.
Gross: Stock Market Due for Pullback
By: Dan Weil
Money News
Bond guru Bill Gross says stocks have far outrun the economy and are thus overvalued.
He compared the market over the past 12 months to a choice between historical comedians Will Rogers and Barney Fife.
Fife, of course, was the hapless deputy on the 1960s comedy "The Andy Griffith Show." And Gross opted for him.
“We've got a Barney Fife market,” he told CNBC.
Money News
Bond guru Bill Gross says stocks have far outrun the economy and are thus overvalued.
He compared the market over the past 12 months to a choice between historical comedians Will Rogers and Barney Fife.
Fife, of course, was the hapless deputy on the 1960s comedy "The Andy Griffith Show." And Gross opted for him.
“We've got a Barney Fife market,” he told CNBC.
Extraordinary Popular Delusions . . .
. . . and the madness of politicians pitching banker pay curbs.
Meetings like the G-20 summit this week in Pittsburgh aren't famous for their accomplishments, but this one bids to be different in at least one area: Cementing the notion that banker paychecks were the financial weapons of mass destruction that blew up the markets last year.
Meetings like the G-20 summit this week in Pittsburgh aren't famous for their accomplishments, but this one bids to be different in at least one area: Cementing the notion that banker paychecks were the financial weapons of mass destruction that blew up the markets last year.
Stiglitz, Sen, and the End of Recession
by: Michael Mandel
Most forecasters expect third quarter real GDP growth to be positive, perhaps as much as 3%. This will be widely hailed as a sign that the nasty recession of 2008-2009 has come to an end. Indeed, the Fed’s statement today that “economic activity has picked up” seems to fuel the belief that the recovery has started.
Most forecasters expect third quarter real GDP growth to be positive, perhaps as much as 3%. This will be widely hailed as a sign that the nasty recession of 2008-2009 has come to an end. Indeed, the Fed’s statement today that “economic activity has picked up” seems to fuel the belief that the recovery has started.
Top Five IPOs of 2009 (Part I)
Tate Dwinnell
Seeking Alpha
The first half of 2009 brought us some memorable IPOs, but for the most part it was forgettable. As we approach the final quarter of the year with a flurry of IPOs expected to price in the coming days, I thought I’d rank what I think are the top IPOs of 2009. Please note that these are not ranked solely on performance, but rather on fundamentals such as earnings and sales growth, ROE and margins. No, this is not an extremely scientific ranking. You data junkies can crunch the numbers and run through your algorithms elsewhere.
Seeking Alpha
The first half of 2009 brought us some memorable IPOs, but for the most part it was forgettable. As we approach the final quarter of the year with a flurry of IPOs expected to price in the coming days, I thought I’d rank what I think are the top IPOs of 2009. Please note that these are not ranked solely on performance, but rather on fundamentals such as earnings and sales growth, ROE and margins. No, this is not an extremely scientific ranking. You data junkies can crunch the numbers and run through your algorithms elsewhere.
South Africa’s Stocks Rally ‘Not a False Start,’ Says Sanlam
By Janice Kew
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- South African stocks, which have rallied 41 percent since this year’s low on March 3, are likely to rise further, even as the pace may moderate, according to Sanlam Private Investments.
“This is not a false start,” said Alwyn van der Merwe, who helps manage the equivalent of about $4.3 billion as director of investments at the unit of Sanlam Ltd., the largest South African-owned insurer. Even so, the momentum of the FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index’s rally now depends on companies’ improved earnings outlook, he said.
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- South African stocks, which have rallied 41 percent since this year’s low on March 3, are likely to rise further, even as the pace may moderate, according to Sanlam Private Investments.
“This is not a false start,” said Alwyn van der Merwe, who helps manage the equivalent of about $4.3 billion as director of investments at the unit of Sanlam Ltd., the largest South African-owned insurer. Even so, the momentum of the FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index’s rally now depends on companies’ improved earnings outlook, he said.
African Development Bank’s Kaberuka Calls for Global Stimulus
By Tian Huang and Margaret Brennan
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The African Development Bank, the Tunis-based lender, is pushing for global economic stimulus to help pull African countries out of the financial crisis, bank president Donald Kaberuka said.
“What we are saying to governments around the world is let us work together,” Kaberuka said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
The global financial crisis triggered South Africa’s first recession in 17 years while demand for commodities slumped in countries such as Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer, and Zambia, the continent’s largest copper producer.
A “synchronized global approach that doesn’t leave out any part of the world” and investing in African infrastructure would be a boon for poor countries in the region, Kaberuka said.
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The African Development Bank, the Tunis-based lender, is pushing for global economic stimulus to help pull African countries out of the financial crisis, bank president Donald Kaberuka said.
“What we are saying to governments around the world is let us work together,” Kaberuka said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
The global financial crisis triggered South Africa’s first recession in 17 years while demand for commodities slumped in countries such as Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer, and Zambia, the continent’s largest copper producer.
A “synchronized global approach that doesn’t leave out any part of the world” and investing in African infrastructure would be a boon for poor countries in the region, Kaberuka said.
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