Finding the Policy Exit

By Nouriel Roubini

There is a general consensus that the massive monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and support of the financial system undertaken by governments and central banks around the world prevented the deep recession of 2008-2009 from devolving into Great Depression II. Policymakers were able to avoid a depression because they had learned from the policy mistakes made during the Great Depression of the 1930’s and Japan’s near depression of the 1990’s.

Gross: Stock Market Due for Pullback

By: Dan Weil

Money News

Bond guru Bill Gross says stocks have far outrun the economy and are thus overvalued.
He compared the market over the past 12 months to a choice between historical comedians Will Rogers and Barney Fife.
Fife, of course, was the hapless deputy on the 1960s comedy "The Andy Griffith Show." And Gross opted for him.
“We've got a Barney Fife market,” he told CNBC.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions . . .

. . . and the madness of politicians pitching banker pay curbs.

Meetings like the G-20 summit this week in Pittsburgh aren't famous for their accomplishments, but this one bids to be different in at least one area: Cementing the notion that banker paychecks were the financial weapons of mass destruction that blew up the markets last year.

Stiglitz, Sen, and the End of Recession

by: Michael Mandel

Most forecasters expect third quarter real GDP growth to be positive, perhaps as much as 3%. This will be widely hailed as a sign that the nasty recession of 2008-2009 has come to an end. Indeed, the Fed’s statement today that “economic activity has picked up” seems to fuel the belief that the recovery has started.

Top Five IPOs of 2009 (Part I)

Tate Dwinnell

Seeking Alpha

The first half of 2009 brought us some memorable IPOs, but for the most part it was forgettable. As we approach the final quarter of the year with a flurry of IPOs expected to price in the coming days, I thought I’d rank what I think are the top IPOs of 2009. Please note that these are not ranked solely on performance, but rather on fundamentals such as earnings and sales growth, ROE and margins. No, this is not an extremely scientific ranking. You data junkies can crunch the numbers and run through your algorithms elsewhere.

South Africa’s Stocks Rally ‘Not a False Start,’ Says Sanlam

By Janice Kew

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- South African stocks, which have rallied 41 percent since this year’s low on March 3, are likely to rise further, even as the pace may moderate, according to Sanlam Private Investments.

“This is not a false start,” said Alwyn van der Merwe, who helps manage the equivalent of about $4.3 billion as director of investments at the unit of Sanlam Ltd., the largest South African-owned insurer. Even so, the momentum of the FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index’s rally now depends on companies’ improved earnings outlook, he said.

African Development Bank’s Kaberuka Calls for Global Stimulus

By Tian Huang and Margaret Brennan

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The African Development Bank, the Tunis-based lender, is pushing for global economic stimulus to help pull African countries out of the financial crisis, bank president Donald Kaberuka said.

“What we are saying to governments around the world is let us work together,” Kaberuka said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

The global financial crisis triggered South Africa’s first recession in 17 years while demand for commodities slumped in countries such as Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer, and Zambia, the continent’s largest copper producer.

A “synchronized global approach that doesn’t leave out any part of the world” and investing in African infrastructure would be a boon for poor countries in the region, Kaberuka said.

A fragile rebound for Asia

Bank raises growth forecast, but long-term health requires renewed demand in export markets

BRIAN MILNER

Asia's emerging economies have rebounded from the global recession faster than anyone expected, even though their major export markets continue to languish.
But much of the growth spurt that began in earnest in the second quarter stems from heavy government spending and other temporary initiatives to stimulate domestic demand, and the region has yet to shake its dependence on the exhausted consumers of the more advanced economies.

The more of us the merrier

Arthur Sinodinos

Article from: The Australian

LAST week's announcement of revised population projections for Australia is good news on economic, social and strategic grounds. Rather than focus on potential downsides, we should speculate on the exciting possibilities that can flow from such a development.
First and foremost, a larger population will enhance our capacity to exercise more influence in what is likely to be a volatile international environment over coming decades.

Rosenberg: Stocks Are Overvalued And "Tremendously Risky"

Henry Blodget

David Rosenberg has been wrong about the market since March, but he isn't backing down. Here he is in the FT, as bearish as ever: Usually at bear market troughs, the S&P 500 goes to silly cheap levels. It did not this time round and, six months and 60 per cent later, there is yet again, in 2007 style, tremendous risk in this market. Never before has the stock market surged this far, this fast, between the time of the low and the time the recession (supposedly) ended. What is “normal” is that the rally ahead of the recovery is 20 per cent. This market is now trading as if we were in the second half of a recovery phase, yet it has not even been fully ascertained the downturn is over...