The BMD Decision and the Global System

By Stratfor

he United States announced late Sept. 17 that it would abandon a plan for placing ballistic missile defense (BMD) installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. Instead of the planned system, which was intended to defend primarily against a potential crude intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) threat from Iran against the United States, the administration chose a restructured system that will begin by providing some protection to Europe using U.S. Navy ships based on either the North or Mediterranean seas. The Obama administration has argued that this system will be online sooner than the previously planned system and that follow-on systems will protect the United States. It was also revealed that the latest National Intelligence Estimate finds that Iran is further away from having a true intercontinental missile capability than previously thought, meaning protecting Europe is a more pressing concern than protecting the United States.

Shiller Says We Need More Research On Economic Bubbles

With the failure of current economic models to give adequate warning of the current financial crisis, Robert Shiller says we need more research of bubbles and what their role should be in economic models. If we had a better understanding of bubbles, could we prevent them from reaching dangerous levels or detect trouble much sooner? The following article summarized by the Economist's View discusses this topic.
Robert Shiller says economists and their models need to take bubbles seriously (compare Dani Rodrik's "Blame Economists, not Economics"):

Meredith Whitney: At Least 300 More Banks To Fail

The Daily Bail

I stumbled across this clip from Friday's Good Morning America with Diane Sawyer and Meredith Whitney. It's a good opportunity to talk about Sawyer's intelligence. She has none. (Editor's Note: I got stories but I'm not talking.) Whitney reiterates her thesis that home prices have 25% further to fall and that consumer credit contraction will keep the recovery weak. Sawyer seems almost shocked by the pessimism, as though her assistant never explained to Meredith that you're not supposed to tell the truth on morning TV. She recovers in time to ask MW for one piece of 'advise' for everyone out there.

Finding the Policy Exit

By Nouriel Roubini

There is a general consensus that the massive monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and support of the financial system undertaken by governments and central banks around the world prevented the deep recession of 2008-2009 from devolving into Great Depression II. Policymakers were able to avoid a depression because they had learned from the policy mistakes made during the Great Depression of the 1930’s and Japan’s near depression of the 1990’s.

Gross: Stock Market Due for Pullback

By: Dan Weil

Money News

Bond guru Bill Gross says stocks have far outrun the economy and are thus overvalued.
He compared the market over the past 12 months to a choice between historical comedians Will Rogers and Barney Fife.
Fife, of course, was the hapless deputy on the 1960s comedy "The Andy Griffith Show." And Gross opted for him.
“We've got a Barney Fife market,” he told CNBC.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions . . .

. . . and the madness of politicians pitching banker pay curbs.

Meetings like the G-20 summit this week in Pittsburgh aren't famous for their accomplishments, but this one bids to be different in at least one area: Cementing the notion that banker paychecks were the financial weapons of mass destruction that blew up the markets last year.

Stiglitz, Sen, and the End of Recession

by: Michael Mandel

Most forecasters expect third quarter real GDP growth to be positive, perhaps as much as 3%. This will be widely hailed as a sign that the nasty recession of 2008-2009 has come to an end. Indeed, the Fed’s statement today that “economic activity has picked up” seems to fuel the belief that the recovery has started.

Top Five IPOs of 2009 (Part I)

Tate Dwinnell

Seeking Alpha

The first half of 2009 brought us some memorable IPOs, but for the most part it was forgettable. As we approach the final quarter of the year with a flurry of IPOs expected to price in the coming days, I thought I’d rank what I think are the top IPOs of 2009. Please note that these are not ranked solely on performance, but rather on fundamentals such as earnings and sales growth, ROE and margins. No, this is not an extremely scientific ranking. You data junkies can crunch the numbers and run through your algorithms elsewhere.

South Africa’s Stocks Rally ‘Not a False Start,’ Says Sanlam

By Janice Kew

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- South African stocks, which have rallied 41 percent since this year’s low on March 3, are likely to rise further, even as the pace may moderate, according to Sanlam Private Investments.

“This is not a false start,” said Alwyn van der Merwe, who helps manage the equivalent of about $4.3 billion as director of investments at the unit of Sanlam Ltd., the largest South African-owned insurer. Even so, the momentum of the FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index’s rally now depends on companies’ improved earnings outlook, he said.

African Development Bank’s Kaberuka Calls for Global Stimulus

By Tian Huang and Margaret Brennan

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The African Development Bank, the Tunis-based lender, is pushing for global economic stimulus to help pull African countries out of the financial crisis, bank president Donald Kaberuka said.

“What we are saying to governments around the world is let us work together,” Kaberuka said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

The global financial crisis triggered South Africa’s first recession in 17 years while demand for commodities slumped in countries such as Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer, and Zambia, the continent’s largest copper producer.

A “synchronized global approach that doesn’t leave out any part of the world” and investing in African infrastructure would be a boon for poor countries in the region, Kaberuka said.