Gary Shilling's Latest Thoughts

by Mark, TraderMark

Very few people forecast this mess in either magnitude or timing although many now claim they did. Even some of the most prominent "permabears" while correct on many of the outcomes, did not get the investing themes correct (i.e. Peter Schiff)... Gary Shilling is about as close to anyone I can find who not only got the economics right but also made a remarkable set of calls. For example many of us bears thought the dollar would be whipped into submission since in 99 out of 100 cases the country that spawns a world financial crisis does not have all the Earth's money flood into its currency - Shilling got that right, saying to go long the dollar and US bonds (really the only place to hide in 2nd half 2008 as ALL historic correlations broke down). While he was wrong on betting against commodities in 1st half 2008 he made it up in spades in the 2nd half.

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